2022 is coming to a close. The tech industry has been going through quite a whirlwind of uncertainty for most of the year. The days of “growth at all costs” seem far behind us. There are questions brewing about what this means for tech and Silicon Valley itself. Software spent decades “eating the world” as Marc Andreesen famously wrote. But perhaps it overindulged itself.

The last two decades brought about the complete transformation of industries. Universe-denting companies like Amazon, Airbnb, Coinbase, Slack and Stripe have been disruptive. And this year they are all downsizing. In fact, 1000 tech-oriented companies or so have laid off employees this year. ARK innovation companies have fallen 70% from their highs.

In 2020, we saw a technological response to a global pandemic that locked most of us down in our homes. People with access to the Internet — spent a lot of time on Zoom, UberEats, TikTok, Netflix, and WhatsApp. Software companies enjoyed record levels of acquisitions, adoption, and engagement. B2B SaaS shifted towards product-led growth. Marketplaces that relied on real-world interactions had to adapt or expand their strategies. Tech stocks and cryptocurrencies enjoyed great rallies.

What came next was a pendulum swing back to reality. And now we may be seeing more than a natural correction. This feels like a cultural shift on how tech companies operate and the role they play on planet Earth. At the very least, it is a return to basics. Companies are conservative in spending, ruthless in priorities, and almost obsessed with rightsizing. OKRs and targets are chasing profitability and ARR-to-headcount.

For those of us who experienced one or more recessions… We’ve known something like this was coming. It’s impossible to predict the timing. It's impossible to know how deep, wide and complex a recession might be, but once you go through one… you don’t forget it.

For those of you who started a career in tech over the last decade, fasten your seat belts - it’s going to be a bumpy ride. Cycles come and go. You may observe your peers and leaders becoming myopic, passive aggressive, cynical. You may experience some serious FUD. Try to zoom out and consider the greater picture. There is much to be grateful and excited for. Unlike humans 100, 1000 or 5000 years ago, we have it pretty easy. And regardless of how difficult the game of life may feel -- Life itself is a gift, and each day is a learning opportunity.

Assuming decades of data is accurate, the bumpy ride ahead is but the beginning of something new. New beginnings, and cultural shifts, can be intimidating. They can be painful. But they can also bring about clear thinking, focus, and innovation. It is wise to be observant. It is good to be weary of trends followed because they are popular. That’s part of how we got into this mess in the first place.

There's a season for everything and we are in a unique season, but there have been others like it in the past. Imagine where we'd be today if the tech industry had been thinking like Andy Grove. We needed more 'paranoia' about the ‘inertia of success’ and ‘winds of change' that Grove talked about.

Hindsight is 20/20.

The thing is, there are still pockets in tech that are doing companies that are doing well this year. Or at least better than the rest. SaaS has examples like Figma, Notion, Jasper, ZoomInfo, Monday and 37Signals. There are also giants in hardware. And startups in spaces like agtech and health still hitting their stride. What makes these outliers in a tech-wide trough of sorrow? We can assume some focused on their core, grew sustainably, and built efficiently. We can hope they were customer-centric, long-term oriented, and missional. Maybe they have true moats, hedged their bets, and were better prepared for a looming downturn.

Alas, this isn’t a newsletter about business, economics, history, psychology, or self-help.

This is a newsletter about product. And the people who build and influence product decisions. At the end of the day, tech companies are product companies. What is Eventbrite without its marketplace? What is Spotify without its player? What is Apple without its devices? All the branding, salesmanship, and technical genius on Earth is nothing without products.

In 'Product State,' we will explore the current and future state of product. We will explore trends, shifts, strategies, and tactics. We will ask big questions and propose potential solutions. We will avoid sugar coating and seek truth. I say “we” because I’ll be reaching out to top leaders in product to weigh in. I’ll be seeking different perspectives — founders, execs, PMs, designers, marketers, recruiters. From software and hardware, different stages, sizes, and geographies. The goal is for us to gain and share insights about the evolving role of product, and product people. My hope is some of the questions and ideas in ‘Product State’ will inspire us to do better. Product-shaping should be a noble profession. We can make way for a new generation of leaders, learn from past mistakes, and optimize for a better future.

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Product State

The state of product in 2022, and why this…